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Mozambique: Africa’s Primary Gas Hotspot for 2026

  • Writer: Marketting Team
    Marketting Team
  • Dec 18, 2025
  • 2 min read

Executive Summary: Mozambique’s Energy Resurgence (2025–2026)

Mozambique is entering a pivotal transition in 2025–2026, shifting from a period of security-related suspensions to a phase of massive capital mobilisation. With nearly $60 billion in combined LNG investments, the country is positioned to become one of the world's top ten LNG exporters by the next decade.


1. Critical Milestones: The "Big Three" Projects

The landscape is dominated by three multi-billion-dollar developments in the Rovuma Basin:

  • Mozambique LNG (TotalEnergies): After a 4-year pause, TotalEnergies officially lifted its "Force Majeure" in October 2025. The project is mobilising roughly 12,500 to 15,000 workers and contractors. A revised $20.5 billion budget and a new target for first production in H1 2029 are currently awaiting final government ratification.

  • Rovuma LNG (ExxonMobil): Following the lead of TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil lifted its own force majeure in late 2025. President Daniel Chapo expects a Final Investment Decision (FID) by July 2026. This project is planned as Africa’s largest onshore facility with an 18 MTPA capacity.

  • Coral Norte FLNG (Eni): Building on the success of the operational Coral Sul platform, Eni greenlit this $7.2 billion floating facility in October 2025. It is expected to double Eni's local output starting in 2028.


2. Financial & Economic Outlook

  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): The government projects FDI to exceed $5 billion in 2026, driven almost entirely by the restart of Cabo Delgado projects.

  • Revenue Potential: Total gas reserves (estimated at 180 trillion cubic feet) could generate over $100 billion in long-term state revenue.

  • Short-term Volatility: Despite the long-term boom, GDP growth forecasts for 2026 have been adjusted downward (from 3.8% to 2.5%) due to scheduled maintenance on the existing Coral Sul platform and fiscal consolidation efforts.


3. Strategic Risks & Challenges

  • Security: While Rwandan and Mozambican forces have stabilised the "security enclave" around the Afungi Peninsula, insurgent activity continues in the wider Cabo Delgado province, remaining a primary concern for lenders.

  • Financing Gaps: TotalEnergies is currently restructuring its debt package after the withdrawal of UK (UKEF) and Dutch (Atradius) export credit agencies in late 2025, opting instead to increase equity contributions from project partners.

  • License Extensions: TotalEnergies has requested a 10-year extension on its production license to account for the delays caused by the 2021–2025 shutdown.


4. Conclusion

The year 2026 will be the "Year of Construction." With political stability under the new Chapo administration and the official return of ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, Mozambique is no longer a "potential" player but an active cornerstone of the global energy transition.



Legal Disclaimer:

The information provided in this blog post is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or other professional advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability, or availability with respect to the blog post or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the blog post for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and consult with appropriate professionals before making any decisions

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