Libya’s Energy Sector 2025: Operational Rebound and Strategic Expansion

Executive Summary

Libya’s oil and gas sector in 2025 has been defined by a return to stability and a focus on long-term infrastructure health. Moving past the volatility of previous years, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has successfully maintained production above the psychological 1.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) threshold for the majority of the year. Rapid responses to disruptions and the advancement of major joint venture projects with international partners such as Eni and TotalEnergies support this resilience.

Key Facts & Production Figures

• Production Volume: The year-to-date average for crude and condensate stood at 1.215 MMb/d, a distinct improvement over the 2024 annual average of 1.105 MMb/d.

• Export Flows: Exports averaged 1.15 MMb/d, closely tracking production levels. The bulk of this volume flowed through the Es Sider terminal (averaging 400,000 b/d) and the Zueitina terminal (averaging 100,000 b/d).

• Revenue Generation: Driven by high output and favourable benchmark prices, the NOC reported $38.5 billion in revenue for the first three quarters (Jan–Sep 2025).

• Refining Utilisation:

  • Zawiya Refinery: Recovered to 85% utilisation (102,000 b/d) after significant outages in late 2024.

  • Ras Lanuf Refinery: Remains constrained, operating at only 15% capacity (33,000 b/d) pending comprehensive rehabilitation.

Major Projects & Strategic Initiatives The NOC has leveraged Joint Ventures (JVs) to drive capital projects critical for future growth:

• Waha Gas Project (TotalEnergies): The NOC and TotalEnergies confirmed the Final Investment Decision (FID) for this pivotal project designed to increase gas capture and reduce flaring, aligning operational efficiency with ESG goals.

• Structures A&E Gas Development (Eni): Part of the Mellitah Oil & Gas JV, this project continued to progress, aimed at boosting domestic gas availability and securing exports via the Greenstream pipeline.

• Waha Workover Campaign: A tactical initiative targeting 15 mature wells was successfully executed, adding 18,000 b/d of stable, low-risk production capacity.

• Brega Storage Reinstatement: In Q2 2025, the NOC completed the rehabilitation of the dilapidated storage tank farm at Brega, restoring critical strategic reserve capabilities.

Safety & Investment Outlook

• Improved Safety Standards: The sector recorded a drop in the Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) to 0.30 per 200,000 work hours in Q3 2025 (down from 0.35), reflecting a successful push for asset integrity.

• Capital Requirements: To sustain this momentum, the NOC has officially requested a $12 billion CAPEX/OPEX budget for the 2025–2027 period, specifically targeted at modernising pipeline systems and surface facilities.

Conclusion 

The 2025 period marks a decisive shift for Libya's energy sector from crisis management to strategic stabilisation. By maintaining production at 1.215 MMb/d and securing international investment for projects such as Structures A&E and the Waha Gas Project, the NOC has laid a foundation for growth. However, fully realising the sector's potential—particularly in downstream refining—remains contingent on securing the proposed $12 billion investment package to modernise ageing assets.

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